@davidtphung / Data Investigation

The Weight ofCalifornia.

David Friedberg said the state is functionally bankrupt. I pulled 50 years of records to prove him wrong.

Six claims. Six verdicts. Every number sourced from California's own budgets, pension actuarial reports, and federal data. The numbers didn't cooperate.

$0BTotal Liabilities
$0BPension Shortfall
$0B+HSR Spent, 0 Miles
0/6Claims Verified
$0B→$0Surplus Evaporated
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01

The Fact Check

David Friedberg made six claims about California's fiscal health. We pulled the public records.

Pension Shortfall

"$250B to $1T short"

Official: $265B. Market (Hoover): $769B. ALEC: $1.5T.

✓ TRUE

Can't Restructure

"Benefits can never be restructured"

California Rule: constitutional vested obligation.

✓ TRUE

No Bankruptcy

"States cannot go bankrupt"

Ch. 9 = municipalities. No federal statute for states.

✓ TRUE

Priority

"Pensions senior to bonds"

Constitutional > contractual. Pensions win.

✓ TRUE

Tax Flight

"Can't tax out, people leave"

700K+ left 2020-24. Top rate: 13.3%.

✓ TRUE

HSR

"$14B, no rail"

$18B+ spent. Zero HSR track. Est: $126B.

⚠ WORSE

02

Budget Explorer

50 years of California's General Fund — every dollar in, every dollar out.

Revenue vs Expenditures

Source: CA DOF Chart A

03

The Pension Crisis

$265 billion in unfunded liabilities — and that's the optimistic number.

Unfunded Pension Liability

Source: CalPERS/CalSTRS Actuarial Reports

California's two largest public pension funds — CalPERS (California Public Employees' Retirement System) and CalSTRS (California State Teachers' Retirement System) — carry a combined unfunded liability that has grown dramatically over the past two decades.

Unfunded liability represents the gap between what the funds have promised to pay retirees and what they actually have on hand. These obligations are calculated using a “discount rate” — the assumed annual investment return. The higher the assumed return, the smaller the reported gap. CalPERS currently assumes 6.8%, but independent analysts argue a more conservative rate reveals a far larger shortfall.

Use the interactive modeler below to see how different discount rate assumptions change the picture.

Discount Rate Scenario Modeler

6.8%
3.0%8.0%
Hoover 4.5%
Official 6.8%

Total Unfunded

$265B

Per Resident

$6,795

Per Household

$20,045

Funded Ratio

69.4%

Funded Ratio69.4%
0%100%

04

Governor Scorecards

Three governors, three fiscal legacies. The data grades them.

Three governors have presided over California's modern fiscal trajectory. One inherited a crisis and left a surplus. The others inherited surpluses and left crises. The numbers tell the story.

Arnold Schwarzenegger

2003-2011

Republican
D+

Inherited

+$3.5B

Left With

-$5.3B

Avg Revenue

$88B

Avg Spending

$90B

Pension Start

$35B

Pension End

$212B

Bills Signed

1,275

Vetoes

456

Great Recession · Furloughs · IOUs

Jerry Brown

2011-2019

Democrat
B+

Inherited

-$3.1B

Left With

+$11.3B

Avg Revenue

$112B

Avg Spending

$111B

Pension Start

$212B

Pension End

$228B

Bills Signed

1,845

Vetoes

672

Prop 30 · BSA built to $16B · Wall of Debt paid

Gavin Newsom

2019-Present

Democrat
D-

Inherited

+$11.3B

Left With

-$20-35B/yr

Avg Revenue

$198B

Avg Spending

$212B

Pension Start

$228B

Pension End

$265B+

Bills Signed

1,600

Vetoes

300

$97B surplus → gone · $18B HSR / 0 track · Reserves drained

05

High-Speed Rail

$18 billion spent. Zero miles of high-speed rail. The most expensive infrastructure failure in American history.

In 2008, California voters approved $9.9B in bonds for a high-speed rail system connecting Los Angeles to San Francisco. The original estimate was $33B.

It’s now $128B.

Track laid: 0 miles of high-speed rail.

Nearly two decades later, the project has consumed over $18 billion in taxpayer funds with construction limited to a segment of the Central Valley. No high-speed trains run anywhere in California. The federal government has clawed back $3.5 billion in funding.

Cost Escalation

Source: CA HSR Authority

$33B

Original Estimate

$128B

Current Estimate

$18B+

Total Spent

0 miles

HSR Track Laid

+288%

Cost Growth

$3.5B

Federal Funding Killed

06

The Fire Season That Never Ends

From Paradise to Palisades — California's wildfire crisis and the prevention budgets that went unspent.

California’s wildfire crisis has become a permanent feature of life in the state. The 2020 fire season alone burned 4.2 million acres—an area larger than Connecticut.

In January 2025, the Palisades and Eaton fires tore through Los Angeles, destroying over 16,000 structures and killing 28 people. The combined insured losses are expected to exceed $45 billion, making them the costliest natural disaster in California history.

Behind the flames lies a pattern: California consistently allocates fire prevention budgets it never fully spends. The gap between what is budgeted for fuel management, defensible-space enforcement, and forest thinning and what actually gets deployed averages 40%.

8.3M

Acres Burned (2020s)

45,800

Structures Lost (2017-25)

164

Deaths (2017-25)

$75B+

Insured Losses

40%

Prevention Budget Gap

Acres Burned Annually

Source: CAL FIRE

Palisades Fire

January 2025

Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles

23.4K

Acres

6.8K

Structures

11

Deaths

$250M

Cost

Cause: Under investigation

Eaton Fire

January 2025

Altadena / Pasadena

14.1K

Acres

9.4K

Structures

17

Deaths

$95M

Cost

Cause: Under investigation

Dixie Fire

Jul-Oct 2021

Butte / Plumas Counties

963.3K

Acres

1.3K

Structures

1

Deaths

$637M

Cost

Cause: PG&E equipment

Camp Fire

November 2018

Paradise, Butte County

153.3K

Acres

18.8K

Structures

85

Deaths

$16500M

Cost

Cause: PG&E transmission lines

Tubbs Fire

October 2017

Napa / Sonoma Counties

36.8K

Acres

5.6K

Structures

22

Deaths

$1200M

Cost

Cause: Private electrical system

Thomas Fire

Dec-Jan 2017

Ventura / Santa Barbara

281.9K

Acres

1.1K

Structures

23

Deaths

$2170M

Cost

Cause: Power lines (SCE)

Fire Prevention: Budget vs Reality

Source: CA DOF / CAL FIRE

07

The Energy Squeeze

The highest gas prices, highest electricity rates, and shrinking refinery capacity in the nation.

Californians pay more for energy than nearly every other state in the nation. Gas prices carry a $1.80/gallon premium over the national average—driven by the highest gas taxes in the country, cap-and-trade costs, and a shrinking refinery base.

Electricity rates have surged to 112% above the US average, even as the state leads the nation in renewable energy adoption. Three major refineries are closing or converting by 2026, removing 420,000 barrels/day of capacity and tightening supply further.

The energy cost burden falls hardest on lower-income Californians and the Central Valley, where extreme heat makes air conditioning a necessity and long commutes make gas prices a kitchen-table issue.

$1.80/gal over US avg

Gas Premium

$1.37/gal

Total Tax Per Gallon

112%vs US average

Electricity Premium

420Kbbl/day

Refinery Capacity Lost

56%

Renewable Energy Mix

Gas Prices: California vs US Average

Source: EIA

Gas Tax Breakdown Per Gallon

Source: BOE / CARB
$0.18
Federal: $0.184
$0.60
State Excise: $0.596
Sales Tax: $0.120
$0.22
Cap-and-Trade: $0.220
$0.25
LCFS: $0.250
Federal$0.18
State Excise$0.60
Sales Tax$0.12
Cap-and-Trade$0.22
LCFS$0.25
Total$1.37/gallon

Refinery Status Tracker

Source: CEC / Industry Reports

Chevron Richmond

Chevron

Operating
245,000bbl/day

Largest in Northern CA

Marathon Martinez

Marathon (was Shell)

Closing 2026
161,000bbl/day

Converting to renewable diesel

Phillips 66 Wilmington

Phillips 66

Closing 2025
139,000bbl/day

Announced closure Oct 2024

Phillips 66 Rodeo

Phillips 66

Converted
120,000bbl/day

Now Rodeo Renewed — world's largest renewable fuels facility

Valero Benicia

Valero

Operating
145,000bbl/day

PBF Torrance

PBF Energy

Operating
155,000bbl/day

Former ExxonMobil

Chevron El Segundo

Chevron

Operating
269,000bbl/day

Largest in CA

Electricity Rates: CA vs US

Source: EIA

08

The Liability Waterfall

$497 billion in identified obligations. Every category visualized.

CalPERS Pensions$166B
33.4%
Retiree Health (OPEB)$72B
14.5%
GO Bonds$71.3B
14.4%
CalSTRS Pensions$67B
13.5%
Other Bonds / LRBs$40.5B
8.2%
Other Local Pensions$32B
6.4%
UI Fund Federal Loan$20B
4.0%
Deferred Maintenance$18B
3.6%
Budget Borrowing$10B
2.0%
Total Identified Liabilities$496.8B

09

How California Compares

California's fiscal position benchmarked against the nation's largest states.

Total Long-Term Debt by State

Source: US Census / Moody's

State Fiscal Comparison

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Source: US Census / Moody's / Tax Foundation

10

Assembly & Senate

How California's legislature shifted to one-party supermajority — and what it means for fiscal policy.

Assembly Composition Over Time

Democrats achieved supermajority (54/80 seats) in 2012, enabling passage of tax increases and constitutional amendments without Republican votes. As of 2024: 62D / 18R.

Source: CA Secretary of State

11

GDP & Productivity

The world's 5th largest economy — but can growth outrun the debt?

CA GDP (2025)

$4.2T

Per Capita

$109K

CA Growth

2.2%

% of US GDP

14.2%

CA GDP vs US GDP

Source: BEA

Annual GDP Growth Rate

Source: BEA

California is the world's 5th largest economy. Its $4.2 trillion GDP represents roughly 14.2% of the total US economy. Despite this economic power, the state's fiscal challenges — pension liabilities, infrastructure costs, and spending growth outpacing revenue — persist regardless of GDP performance.

12

Project Tracker

California's track record on major state projects — promises made vs. promises kept.

Projects Tracked

12

Failures

3

Successes

1

Avg Cost Overrun

241%

Promised vs Actual Cost

High-Speed Rail+288%
Promised: $33BActual: $128B
Delta Tunnels (WaterFix)+25%
Promised: $16BActual: $20B
Bullet Train Alternatives (Brightline West)
Promised: $12BActual: $12B
Bay Bridge Eastern Span+400%
Promised: $1.3BActual: $6.5B
Covered California (ACA Exchange)+30%
Promised: $1BActual: $1.3B
Oroville Dam Spillway+300%
Promised: $0.275BActual: $1.1B
EDD Modernization+400%
Promised: $0.2BActual: $1B

Source: CA DOF / LAO / State Auditor

High-Speed Rail

Infrastructure · Started 2008

Failure
Promised: $33B
Actual: $128B
Target: 2020
Delivered: TBD (est. 2035+)

$18B spent, 0 miles of HSR track operational. Central Valley segment under construction.

Bay Bridge Eastern Span

Infrastructure · Started 1998

Mixed Results
Promised: $1.3B
Actual: $6.5B
Target: 2007
Delivered: 2013

Completed 6 years late, 5x over budget. Bolt and rod failures discovered post-opening.

Oroville Dam Spillway

Infrastructure · Started 2017

Mixed Results
Promised: $0.275B
Actual: $1.1B
Target: 2019
Delivered: 2019

Emergency evacuation of 188,000 people in 2017. Rebuilt on time after crisis. Deferred maintenance was root cause.

Covered California (ACA Exchange)

Technology · Started 2013

Success
Promised: $1B
Actual: $1.3B
Target: 2013
Delivered: 2013

Successfully enrolled 1.6M Californians. Model for other states. Self-sustaining by 2015.

EDD Modernization

Technology · Started 2016

Failure
Promised: $0.2B
Actual: $1B
Target: 2019
Delivered: Ongoing

Catastrophic failure during COVID. $31B in fraudulent payments. System crashed under load. State auditor called it 'a disaster.'

Delta Tunnels (WaterFix)

Infrastructure · Started 2006

Failure
Promised: $16B
Actual: $20B
Target: 2030
Delivered: TBD

Original twin-tunnel plan scrapped. Newsom scaled to single tunnel. Environmental lawsuits ongoing. No construction started.

Prison Realignment (AB 109)

Social · Started 2011

Mixed Results

Transferred 30,000 inmates to county jails. Reduced prison overcrowding. Crime impact debated. Counties report underfunding.

PEPRA Pension Reform

Policy · Started 2013

Mixed Results

Reduced benefits for new hires. Saved est. $42-55B over 30 years. Did NOT address existing unfunded liability of $265B+.

Proposition 47 (Safe Neighborhoods)

Policy · Started 2014

Mixed Results

Reclassified nonviolent felonies to misdemeanors. Reduced prison population. Retail theft debate. Partially rolled back by Prop 36 (2024).

Cap-and-Trade Program

Environment · Started 2013

Mixed Results

Generated $26B+ for GHG reduction fund. Emissions down 16% from 2006 peak. Critics say costs passed to consumers via higher gas/energy prices.

SB 100 (100% Clean Energy)

Environment · Started 2018

Mixed Results

56% renewable as of 2025. On track for 60% by 2030. Grid reliability concerns during heat waves. Rolling blackouts in 2020.

Bullet Train Alternatives (Brightline West)

Infrastructure · Started 2023

In Progress
Promised: $12B
Actual: $12B
Target: 2028
Delivered: In Progress

Private company building LA-to-Vegas high-speed rail. Broke ground 2024. Projected completion 2028. Privately funded (contrast to HSR).

13

Sources & Databases

Every number on this site traces to a public record. Explore the full source library.

BudgetAug 2025

CA DOF Chart A: General Fund Summary

PDF

View source
BudgetNov 2025

LAO 2026-27 Fiscal Outlook

Report

View source
BudgetJan 2026

LAO 2026-27 Budget Overview

Report

View source
BudgetNov 2024

LAO 2025-26 Fiscal Outlook

Report

View source
Budget2025-26

CA eBudget 2025-26

Website

View source
BudgetDec 2025

CalMatters Budget Primer

Article

View source
Budget2025

Senate GOP Budget Analysis

Report

View source
PensionDec 2025

Reason Foundation CA Pension Report

Report

View source
PensionOngoing

CalPERS Actuarial Resources

Data

View source
Pension2025

Equable Institute California

Report

View source
PensionJan 2026

LegalClarity CA Pension Liabilities

Article

View source
Pension2018

Hoover Institution CA Pension

Research

View source
Pension2021

PPIC Public Pensions

Report

View source
DebtOct 2025

CA Treasurer Debt Affordability Report

PDF

View source
DebtOct 2025

Reason Foundation 50-State Debt

Data

View source
DebtDec 2025

CA Policy Center Revenue & Debt Study

Report

View source
HSRFeb 2026

CAHSR 2026 Draft Business Plan

Report

View source
HSRMar 2026

CA Policy Center HSR Analysis

Article

View source
LegislativeOngoing

Open States California

Data

View source
LegislativeOngoing

CA Legislature Bill Search

Website

View source
LegislativeOngoing

Ballotpedia CA Legislature

Data

View source
EconomyOngoing

BEA CA GDP

Data

View source
EconomyOngoing

BLS CA Employment

Data

View source
WildfiresOngoing

CAL FIRE Incident Archive

Data

View source
Wildfires2025

CAL FIRE Statistics

Data

View source
WildfiresOngoing

FEMA Disaster Declarations — California

Data

View source
WildfiresJan 2025

LA County 2025 Fire Damage Assessment

Report

View source
Wildfires2025

CA Insurance Commissioner Wildfire Reports

Report

View source
EnergyOngoing

EIA California Energy Profile

Data

View source
EnergyOngoing

CA Energy Commission

Data

View source
EnergyOngoing

EIA Gasoline Prices

Data

View source
EnergyOngoing

CARB Cap-and-Trade Program

Data

View source
Projects2021-2025

CA State Auditor — EDD Reports

Report

View source
ProjectsOngoing

CA High-Speed Rail Authority

Website

View source
Projects2013

Bay Bridge Eastern Span — Caltrans

Report

View source

35 of 35 sources shown · Every number on this site traces to a public record.